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Saturday, May 3, 2014
146 Trillion in Debt - Real Debts in United States
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist Please Recommend Below:
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
there's only one way to move - it's forward or get stuck in the past of some uncertain "no win scenario" we can never go back and win - sadly it's a most certain element of the human condition and sadly we get stuck in no win scenarios because of bad leadership.....
However there's a key problem preventing us from moving forward....
Key problem (for here and now) is I see a modern dark ages for us... For many who lived in the Soviet Union it was a chore just to get through the day and night (the government and Lenin ("the master controller") ran up the debts, acted like there was no problem (offered cheap goods for less than could possibly be produced according to the real value of money, later resulting in a dead nation, fascism, and forced slavery) . It should not be that way in the land of prosperity.. I know it isn't that bad now but for few who understand the infrastructure degradation and political changes it is a most certain path ---- in my opinion.
Lenin convinced the people (especially his soldiers) that he was for the poor. Yet Lenin came from a well off family and didn't have an economics policy when he created his leadership - so he copied an economics policy from a German (Ludendorff) that included forced labor (slavery). You see when nobody is rewarded for their work - nobody wants to work - therefore there must be forced labor to compensate for the products that are produced - this is hardly a system for the poor but for the privileged like Mr. Lenin.
The primary features of War Communism were:
1. Uncontrolled inflationary printing press finance, ultimately leading to hyperinflation and nationwide reversion to barter
2. Near universal nationalization of manufacturing; widespread nationalization of retailing
3. Stringent price controls upon and forced requisitioning of agricultural products; state monopoly on grain purchases
4. Forced labor for civilians as well as the military
(The US is completing stage 1 of war communism in the United States (Quantitative Easing / flat benchmark rates for big banks) and heading towards stage 2 which is a most certain path. and notice the headlines always talk about some war while the US finances it's very own enemies many times.)
The new youth thinks everything is fine and dandy; even helping carry us down the spiral - literally pushing it, because they know no other way than to create debt and devalue the nation in tandem - all the while chastising wise people who put up warning flags. They say a rising tide lifts all boats - well this all works in reverse when it comes to debts - it's going to sink the USD and give totalitarian control to the government (which is obviously their plan).
USA has unfunded liabilities that are greater than all US assets - meanwhile the government and "economist" keep proclaiming "the debt is ok" "don't worry about buying foreign stuff it's ok" -- next thing you get is a dead nation or the new Soviet Union where everything is run by government and can't produce jack for the people.
The Roman Empire was once thought to be too big to fail but it died basically from the same disease we have now (devaluing it's currency, over-expansion, too big to fail mentality).
The picture above (soup lines) came after an era in the US known as the Roaring 20's. Back then the US thought it was too big to fail. People thought the US was too big to fail before the 2008 crisis and look where we are now. The US is living off of it's past greatness - meanwhile the quality of life statistics are sinking. It's still a great land don't get me wrong but it's path is of certain doom in my opinion.
you can see a dead financial system by looking at this chart.
http://www.mypivots.com/trading/fedrates
It's already went down the crossroads and even with lower rates to "spur labor" the labor sinks. The government acts like it is fixing everything - all they are fixing is a certain path to food lines and more poor people. Sure they are for the poor - they like us so much they keep creating more poor people.
The most terrifying economic chart of 2011
Meanwhile China holds the key to the artificial propping of our system that will pop when they stop giving the US government more play money through the bond market - which then let's the US Federal Reserve manipulate the money system eg prop the Stock Market and make it look like "all is good" because of the "booming" stock market. When the big pop occurs it will be back to the barter system or Soviet Style government. It will be an ugly site - mark my words. If you thought 2008 crisis was bad - you've not seen anything.the youth is all drugged up - none of them want to do legitimate work. This country is at the end of the road -- or should i say a long road of decline should there be a chance to turn around. I'm not seeing it though and I've argued with the best of them. They keep citing false logic that doesn't add up or things that can not be historically validated. Math doesn't change but they for some reason think that 2+2 can equal what ever they want and still be the correct result.
*things really went downhill after the US deregulated the banks (I think it was 1999) the Glass Steagal Act was removed. But needless to say the US has always been bankrupt from the WW wars it never paid for. This was evident when Nixon removed the gold standard which was a technical default -- a 'force majeure'. While there was new eras of prosperity the true financial situation has been a straight spiral down if you consider long term buying power. Government just keeps getting more corrupt as do the corporate institutions.
Gold in Nixon era was 35 an ounce now trades at over 1k per ounce. 1000/35 is 28 times the value.
There's people that want to chop off my head for what I say, but that's too bad I will not stand back and say nothing like a coward as our current leaders do. They call me names, ad hominem attacks (character assassination), or what ever; I will still voice my opinion regardless.
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist Please Recommend Below:
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
IMF comments drag market down reducing forcast on euro-zone.
IMF comments drag market down reducing forcast on euro-zone.
ECB's Draghi Warns Of Growth Risks As IMF Sees Room For Rate Cut
"European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Tuesday said the euro area economy faces more risks to growth and is expected recover only gradually.""The risks to this outlook are on the downside, mainly related to the tensions in several euro area financial markets."
"Eurozone headline inflation is expected to fall to nearly 1.5 percent during 2013 and the risks from wages and profits are on the downside, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report released today."
Japanese Market Down Sharply On Economic Concerns
The Japanese stock market got off to a weak start on Wednesday with investors indulging in some heavy selling, following a weak lead from Wall Street where stocks tumbled overnight amid renewed worries about the global economic outlook.With weak sales data for September hurting sentiment, most of the stocks in the automobile space are trading lower. Machinery, pharmaceuticals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electric power and retail stocks too are trading weak.Marc Faber vs Jim Rogers
Grim Oulook Jolting The Euro
The 7 scariest profit outlooks this quarter
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Gold makes new short term highs - Bernanke contradicts himself
Bernanke signals QE3 but the decision won't be finalized until September. The pledge to keep rates low may also be extended beyond they 2014 window. Further QE may be needed says Bernanke despite last time stating the economy is doing good on it's own without stimulus. More QE likely to come.
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Real Debt Of The United States is 200+ trillion USD
When people think of debt they think of the National Debt but it pales in comparison when all the debts owed by the country are included into the equation and the multi-trillion dollar debt becomes much larger and into the 100's of trillions. The real debt figures include what they call "Unfunded Liabilities". These liabilities (debts) include: Medicare, Social Security, and other programs.
When the debt equation is calculated the real debt is over 200 trillion dollars not just 15-17 trillion they quote as the "national debt". The "unfunded" debt obligations (SS/Medicare/ect) and "funded" obligations (National Debt) total over 200+ trillion. When you start to add up these numbers of what the US produces there's obviously no way to fund all the liabilities. Without the borrowing the US would become a 3rd world country overnight. 1 trillion is 1 thousand billion dollars - just imagine how many people you can feed with 1000 billion dollars or what you could do with +200,000 billion dollars (the real debt in the US)!!!
Some people argue the 200+ trill. figure - but no one can refute the debts are above 100+ trill. which is still alot of apples. Medicare debt obligations alone is estimated to be around $25 trillion (some argue this is higher) which is more than the entire national debt. Social Security is $20+ trillion (also more than the national debt itself).
I've read from various sources that the unfunded debts are from $117 trillion to $211 trillion and always these figures are above 100 trillion from any respectable source. Perhaps the most repected source is this site: usdebtclock.org.
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by Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
External links - related articles:
Government's mountain of debt
$24.5 Trillion In US National Debt, $144 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities
34 Shocking Facts About U.S. Debt
When the debt equation is calculated the real debt is over 200 trillion dollars not just 15-17 trillion they quote as the "national debt". The "unfunded" debt obligations (SS/Medicare/ect) and "funded" obligations (National Debt) total over 200+ trillion. When you start to add up these numbers of what the US produces there's obviously no way to fund all the liabilities. Without the borrowing the US would become a 3rd world country overnight. 1 trillion is 1 thousand billion dollars - just imagine how many people you can feed with 1000 billion dollars or what you could do with +200,000 billion dollars (the real debt in the US)!!!
Some people argue the 200+ trill. figure - but no one can refute the debts are above 100+ trill. which is still alot of apples. Medicare debt obligations alone is estimated to be around $25 trillion (some argue this is higher) which is more than the entire national debt. Social Security is $20+ trillion (also more than the national debt itself).
I've read from various sources that the unfunded debts are from $117 trillion to $211 trillion and always these figures are above 100 trillion from any respectable source. Perhaps the most repected source is this site: usdebtclock.org.
-----------
by Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
External links - related articles:
Government's mountain of debt
$24.5 Trillion In US National Debt, $144 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities
34 Shocking Facts About U.S. Debt
Monday, March 12, 2012
Bob Chapman on Goldbug Radio - Gold Outlawed in 1933
Bob Chapman interview notes:
*Executive order 6102 by Roosevelt required Americans to turn in their gold by May 1st 1933.
*Foreign gold coins were not subjected to as many gold banning laws in the last century and are usually purer.
*1974 Ford legalized the ownership of gold coins, bars, and certificates (but this was done after Nixon "officially" removed the "gold standard" in 71').
*It's only been legal to own gold for less than 40yrs in the United States.
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Details of Executive Order 6102
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The Nixon Shock
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By Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
and Financial Market Researcher
Please Recommend Below:
Louis James Interview by CaseyResearch
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Louis James notes:
*Gold exploration is not going to stop
*Gold more than doubled in the last 5 yrs
*QE3 is good for commodities but if there's no QE3 announcement by Bernanke there will still be other forms of injections because they want to give the appearance that the economy is recovering so they might not call the next injections QE3.
*Gold will not be driven by supply and demand because it's not an industrial metal. Gold is a fear gauge and there are plenty of fear factors left.
*Gold will not go back to precrisis levels anytime soon because investors will not forget that quickly.
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Why do Indian's buy so much Gold?
India, the world's biggest buyer of bullion, consumes about 900 tonnes of the yellow metal annually.
Gold has great significance in India for it's status and folklore that it brings to an Indian wedding. For instance, a bride wearing gold on their wedding is believed to bring luck and happiness throughout the married life. They consider no possession more valuable.
Most Indian households start saving for a marriage years in advance. As India's population gets richer, global gold demand and consumption will increase.
Indians prefer to get married in winter to avoid the monsoon rains and summer heat. Ruffly 70% of gold jewelry is sold in India during the wedding and festival season.
Traditional weddings occur on the months of late September to January (some say to December). September is considered the strongest buying month.
In addition to weddings, Indian jewelers buy gold for the 5-day Hindu festival of Diwali (the “festival of lights”) which occurs between mid-October and mid-November.
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Gold has great significance in India for it's status and folklore that it brings to an Indian wedding. For instance, a bride wearing gold on their wedding is believed to bring luck and happiness throughout the married life. They consider no possession more valuable.
Most Indian households start saving for a marriage years in advance. As India's population gets richer, global gold demand and consumption will increase.
Indians prefer to get married in winter to avoid the monsoon rains and summer heat. Ruffly 70% of gold jewelry is sold in India during the wedding and festival season.
Traditional weddings occur on the months of late September to January (some say to December). September is considered the strongest buying month.
In addition to weddings, Indian jewelers buy gold for the 5-day Hindu festival of Diwali (the “festival of lights”) which occurs between mid-October and mid-November.
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
OWS - Occupy WallStreet - If they only understood the real problem
The movement is well known and has a lot of participators including well known celebrities such as Michael Moore. Many of them have put up hard cash to support the movement. Unfortunately the protestors are on the most part uniformed and the whole movement is unorganized despite it's popular support.
I understand their anger of not having jobs, a reduced standard of living, and many losing their homes in the housing crisis. But who really is the blame here?
The problem is their anger is filled with a lot of stupidity. They have no serious demands other than to attack WallStreet and business. To me it's more of a punk movement - although I know there are serious protestors that actually have serious demands that attack the cause of crisis but on the most part the majority are uniformed and many are punks in my opinion.
While on the surface WallStreet looks like the problem because the corporations that participated in the crisis are all on WallStreet. Let's not forget all the hype from movies that glorify WallStreet making it seem like the cause of all evil.
In actuality WallStreet is good. It represents the right for a corporation to do business and raise funds it needs to expand. The problem with this is not the concept of the corporation and stocks itself but the bailing out of these corporations after they make huge mistakes such as gambling with investors money on the housing bubble, ect. Slogans such as too big to fail have been used by the government which is a failure itself because bad business decisions are supposed to have consequences which do not represent the end of the world. If tax payers have to pay for bad business decisions that is a system failure and the government is directly at fault - not WallStreet.
The underlying causes of the crisis were not WallStreet but the regulations that govern lending. Perhaps the largest mistake was by the Clinton Administration who deregulated the banks by repealing the Glass Steagall Act.
The Glass Steagall Act was created to prevent another 1929 crisis from occurring. Unfortunately it was repealed in 1999 - not long after (and to no surprise if you understand what is happening) there was a massive housing bubble and worst crisis since 1929.
The repeal of the gold standard also doesn't help the situation. A gold backed currency is another form of regulation. This makes it so the currency itself has to be worth something other than paper. Nixon declared a Force Majeure and lifted the gold standard 1971 - it was called the Nixon Shock, officially it ended the Bretton Woods agreement.
As if it weren't enough that the banks were deregulated on Clinton's watch - he also sent away the jobs to China and Mexico by signing trade agreements NAFTA and GATT. 3 critical things have happened here: 1) the dollar deregulated by lifting the gold standard. 2)Banks deregulated by the repeal of the Glass Steagall Act. 3) Jobs sent away by trade deregulation.
It's no wonder that the debt is so high in the US. It would be 1 thing with deregulation that could be backed by a productive country to some extent but since the jobs are sent away to countries that have more labor power there's no way the US could ever pay for it's debt.
With banks deregulated, jobs all sent away, and the dollar deregulated gold has an unlimited future value. I say unlimited because I think the USD will collapse in the future.
For Feb. 2012 the debt-to-GDP ratio for the United States is 115%. Anything above 100% is saying that the country is bankrupt and doesn't have control of it's debt.
The reason Obama raised the debt ceiling in 2011 was so the government could continue to operate. In fact he raised it so high that the subject would not come up again under his current term. To me this is not only irresponsible but a move that a 3rd world country would make.
Greece for example is floating a runaway debt at 160% of GDP. They have to be constantly bailed out for their government to stay afloat. Just imagine the price of gold in Drachma's if Greece wasn't in the Euro.
To say the gold is a bubble (to be more accurate) one would have to say a bubble of what - US debt?
-----------
Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
I understand their anger of not having jobs, a reduced standard of living, and many losing their homes in the housing crisis. But who really is the blame here?
The problem is their anger is filled with a lot of stupidity. They have no serious demands other than to attack WallStreet and business. To me it's more of a punk movement - although I know there are serious protestors that actually have serious demands that attack the cause of crisis but on the most part the majority are uniformed and many are punks in my opinion.
While on the surface WallStreet looks like the problem because the corporations that participated in the crisis are all on WallStreet. Let's not forget all the hype from movies that glorify WallStreet making it seem like the cause of all evil.
In actuality WallStreet is good. It represents the right for a corporation to do business and raise funds it needs to expand. The problem with this is not the concept of the corporation and stocks itself but the bailing out of these corporations after they make huge mistakes such as gambling with investors money on the housing bubble, ect. Slogans such as too big to fail have been used by the government which is a failure itself because bad business decisions are supposed to have consequences which do not represent the end of the world. If tax payers have to pay for bad business decisions that is a system failure and the government is directly at fault - not WallStreet.
The underlying causes of the crisis were not WallStreet but the regulations that govern lending. Perhaps the largest mistake was by the Clinton Administration who deregulated the banks by repealing the Glass Steagall Act.
The Glass Steagall Act was created to prevent another 1929 crisis from occurring. Unfortunately it was repealed in 1999 - not long after (and to no surprise if you understand what is happening) there was a massive housing bubble and worst crisis since 1929.
The repeal of the gold standard also doesn't help the situation. A gold backed currency is another form of regulation. This makes it so the currency itself has to be worth something other than paper. Nixon declared a Force Majeure and lifted the gold standard 1971 - it was called the Nixon Shock, officially it ended the Bretton Woods agreement.
As if it weren't enough that the banks were deregulated on Clinton's watch - he also sent away the jobs to China and Mexico by signing trade agreements NAFTA and GATT. 3 critical things have happened here: 1) the dollar deregulated by lifting the gold standard. 2)Banks deregulated by the repeal of the Glass Steagall Act. 3) Jobs sent away by trade deregulation.
It's no wonder that the debt is so high in the US. It would be 1 thing with deregulation that could be backed by a productive country to some extent but since the jobs are sent away to countries that have more labor power there's no way the US could ever pay for it's debt.
With banks deregulated, jobs all sent away, and the dollar deregulated gold has an unlimited future value. I say unlimited because I think the USD will collapse in the future.
For Feb. 2012 the debt-to-GDP ratio for the United States is 115%. Anything above 100% is saying that the country is bankrupt and doesn't have control of it's debt.
The reason Obama raised the debt ceiling in 2011 was so the government could continue to operate. In fact he raised it so high that the subject would not come up again under his current term. To me this is not only irresponsible but a move that a 3rd world country would make.
Greece for example is floating a runaway debt at 160% of GDP. They have to be constantly bailed out for their government to stay afloat. Just imagine the price of gold in Drachma's if Greece wasn't in the Euro.
To say the gold is a bubble (to be more accurate) one would have to say a bubble of what - US debt?
-----------
Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Friday, March 9, 2012
Gold likes the Greek deal holding strong above 1700
Improved risk sentiment caused gold to firm upon the acceptance of the Greek deal by private bond holders that agreed to take a major writedown on their investments.
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Central Bank purchases of gold surged
The World Gold Council released data on gold demand this week, revealing that central banks acquired 500% more gold in 2011 (440 tons) than in 2010 (77 tons). It market the highest level of gold buying since 1964.
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Gold supply from Central banks
It was 2009 when central banks became net buyers of gold. Since 1989 however central banks had been net sellers. China, India, and Russia became the strongest buyers of gold. Central Banks and Organizations such as the IMF hold about 1/5 of the worldwide gold stocks.
At the end of 2004 central banks and official organizations held 19% of all above-ground gold as official gold reserves.
he ten year Washington Agreement on Gold (WAG), which dates from September 1999, limits gold sales by its members (Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund) to less than 500 tonnes a year. European central banks, such as the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank, were key sellers of gold over this period.
In 2009, this agreement was extended for a further five years, but with a smaller annual sales limit of 400 tonnes.
Central banks do not generally announce gold purchases in advance, some, such as Russia, have expressed interest in growing their gold reserves again as of late 2005. In 2006, China, which only holds 1.3% of its reserves in gold, announced that it was looking for ways to improve the returns on its official reserves. Some bulls hope that this signals that China might reposition more of its holdings into gold in line with other Central Banks. India has recently purchased over 200 tons of gold which has led to a surge in prices.
It is generally accepted that interest rates are closely related to the price of gold. As interest rates rise the general tendency is for the gold price, which earns no interest, to fall, and as rates dip, for gold price to rise. As a result, gold price can be closely correlated to central banks via the monetary policy decisions made by them related to interest rates.
The US Federal Reserve Bank (headed by Chairman Ben Bernanke) pledged to hold interest rates near zero until late 2014 which is bullish for Gold.
-----------
Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
At the end of 2004 central banks and official organizations held 19% of all above-ground gold as official gold reserves.
he ten year Washington Agreement on Gold (WAG), which dates from September 1999, limits gold sales by its members (Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund) to less than 500 tonnes a year. European central banks, such as the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank, were key sellers of gold over this period.
In 2009, this agreement was extended for a further five years, but with a smaller annual sales limit of 400 tonnes.
Central banks do not generally announce gold purchases in advance, some, such as Russia, have expressed interest in growing their gold reserves again as of late 2005. In 2006, China, which only holds 1.3% of its reserves in gold, announced that it was looking for ways to improve the returns on its official reserves. Some bulls hope that this signals that China might reposition more of its holdings into gold in line with other Central Banks. India has recently purchased over 200 tons of gold which has led to a surge in prices.
It is generally accepted that interest rates are closely related to the price of gold. As interest rates rise the general tendency is for the gold price, which earns no interest, to fall, and as rates dip, for gold price to rise. As a result, gold price can be closely correlated to central banks via the monetary policy decisions made by them related to interest rates.
The US Federal Reserve Bank (headed by Chairman Ben Bernanke) pledged to hold interest rates near zero until late 2014 which is bullish for Gold.
-----------
Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Gold Supply & Demand
The worldwide annual gold demand is approximately 3766 tons which mainly comes from jewelers, investors and industrial consumption. New gold that is brought to market comes from new mine production and gold recycling.
Asia and the Middle East take a little over two-thirds of new demand. Out of total annual demand 57% is used for jewelry, 31% are bought by investors, and 11% is used in various industries.
Gold is a desirable metal for industry because it will not tarnish or corrode. It can be made into wire, hammered into thin sheets, and used as alloys with other metals. It is used in a wide variety of applications because of its unique characteristics.
New supply of gold mainly comes from new mine production (59%), gold recycling (35%), and sales (6%) from central banks and other institutions.
Keeping up with demand is not easy - It takes an average of 10 years to bring a new mine online.
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Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Asia and the Middle East take a little over two-thirds of new demand. Out of total annual demand 57% is used for jewelry, 31% are bought by investors, and 11% is used in various industries.
Gold is a desirable metal for industry because it will not tarnish or corrode. It can be made into wire, hammered into thin sheets, and used as alloys with other metals. It is used in a wide variety of applications because of its unique characteristics.
New supply of gold mainly comes from new mine production (59%), gold recycling (35%), and sales (6%) from central banks and other institutions.
Keeping up with demand is not easy - It takes an average of 10 years to bring a new mine online.
-----------
Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
Marc Faber says he owns Gold
Gold Far From Bubble Phase: Marc Faber
-----------
Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
-----------
Neal Vanderstelt
Self-Proclaimed Economist
Please Recommend Below:
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